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The UK's parliament has forced the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson to release planning documents showing the projected impact of a "no-deal" Brexit on the British economy and transport system, and the results show that administrators expect significant challenges – especially for trade at cross-Channel seaports. <\/p>\n
A copy of the study – a six page base-case scenario dubbed "Operation Yellowhammer" – was leaked to the media in August, but the full document is now available online<\/a>. One bullet point is redacted, but the reporter who first publicized the document said<\/a> Wednesday that it outlines possible impacts on the refining industry and a resulting 1-2 week disruption in fuel supplies for affected regions. <\/p>\n The full document confirms that the UK government expects significant disruption to Britain's transport and trade links with continental Europe in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The government's assumptions include:<\/p>\n – that businesses and exporters have a low level of readiness for Brexit, including the imposition of EU customs measures<\/em><\/p>\n – that up to 85 percent of cargo trucks bound for France at the Channel Straits would not be ready for French customs, leading to tailbacks and delays of 40-60 percent within one day<\/em><\/p>\n – ro\/ro freight port performance at the Straits might improve to 50-70 percent of normal within three months as shippers get more prepared for customs checks. <\/em><\/p>\n "In a reasonable worst case scenario, [trucks] could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border," the document warns. <\/p>\n